Political Behaviour/Sociology

F02(a) - Ethnicity, Language, and Electoral Politics / Ethnicité, langue et politique électorale

Date: Jun 3 | Time: 10:15am to 11:45am | Location:

Chair/Président/Présidente : Vincent Raynauld (Emerson University)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Thomas Gareau-Paquette (Cornell University)

Is Electoral Discrimination Declining?: Randy Besco (University of Toronto), Selen Onculoglu (University of Toronto)
Abstract: Recent research has shown that ethnic minority candidates in a range of countries do not get less votes. However, much of this work uses self-report experiments, which are vulnerable to concerns about social desirability and external efficacy. Moreover, since 2015 there has been a rise in media coverage racialized issues and increase in polarization, which might affect support for ethnic minority candidates. To examine this we construct a panel dataset using electoral results, candidate demographics, and census data covering seven elections (2004-2021). This is analyzed using recent advances in difference-in-difference methods, which can incorporate the “treatment” switching back and forth. The results show that Conservative ethnic minority candidates receive less votes than white candidates, but there is no evidence of this for other parties. The reduction in votes received persists for at least two elections. There is no evidence that the level of discrimination is lower (or higher) post-2015 than in previous periods. Drawing on census data, we explore how electoral discrimination varies by district characteristics.

Understanding the vote of linguistic minorities outside Quebec: Maxime Heroux-Legault (UBC-Okanagan), Teo Ardanaz (UBC-Okanagan)
Abstract: Previous work has found that outside Quebec, members of linguistic minorities are more likely to support the Liberal party of Canada. However, research has rarely examined the contextual determinants of this relationship. This research project addresses this gap in the literature. The analysis examines whether voters from minority linguistic groups are more prone to vote for the Liberals depending on the number of co-speakers living in their electoral district. The theoretical expectations are derived from contact theory and group threat theory. Contact theory suggests that living in ridings with more co-speakers would encourage more Liberal voting among members of linguistic minorities, as greater contact with members of the linguistic minority and less contact with members of the linguistic majority would encourage a reinforcement of group voting norms. Conversely, group threat theory suggests that members of linguistic minorities would be more likely to vote Liberal when the number of co-speakers is smaller, as this will elicit greater feelings of threat among the linguistic minority. The results support group threat theory. Both francophones and allophones are more likely to vote for the Liberal party when the proportion of co-speakers is smaller, which increases the feeling that linguistic minority groups are threatened by the linguistic majority. These results suggest that explaining the voting calculus requires the contribution of contextual factors. They also reveal that feelings of threat have a significant influence on the voting decision of linguistic minorities in Canada outside Quebec.

Effect of social networks on Blacks vote for the Liberal Party of Canada: Nadjim Fréchet (Université de Montréal)
Abstract: Despite a growing shift toward conservatism on various issues, African Americans remain among the most loyal supporters of the left-leaning Democratic Party in the United States. Studies suggest that this enduring loyalty is driven by social pressure within their communities and the influence of African American elites. Similarly, recent research indicates that social networks play a role in shaping the political behavior of racial minorities in Canada, much like they do for African Americans in the United States. Just as African Americans with the Democratic Party, racial minorities in Canada overwhelmingly support the socially left-leaning Liberal Party of Canada despite being more socially conservative than the White majority. Focusing on Black Canadians, this research explores whether progressive ideological cues influence the likelihood of Black Canadians voting for the Liberal Party and whether the racial composition of their social network mediates this effect using a survey experiment. Results show that social pressure has more effect on Black Canadians voting Liberal than progressive ideological cues.