Canadian Politics

A02(a) - Party financing and political donations

Date: Jun 3 | Time: 10:15am to 11:45am | Location:

Chair/Président/Présidente : Richard Johnston (University of British Columbia)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Richard Johnston (University of British Columbia)

Banking on Victory? Campaign Spending and Candidate Nomination Outcomes in Canada: Scott Pruysers (Dalhousie University), Rob Currie-Wood (University of Alberta)
Abstract: It is well-established that campaign effort, especially when measured by candidate spending, is positively related to increased electoral performance (Benoit and Marsh, 2003; Fisher et al., 2014). In Canada, for example, major party candidates can expect to earn an additional 0.3 to 0.7 percent of the vote for every additional $1000 spent by their local campaign (Carty and Eagles, 2005). Simply put, candidates who spend more tend to outperform their competitors during elections. The vast majority of this research, however, is derived from studies of general election candidates (but see Atmor et al., 2023). This paper extends research on campaign spending and electoral outcomes to consider whether similar patterns exist at the level of intra-party elections. Specifically, we ask two questions. First, is nomination campaign spending related to positive outcomes? In other words, are nomination contestants with higher spending more likely to win their party’s nomination? Second, given recent evidence regarding donation patterns (Tolley et al., 2022), is nomination fundraising and spending gendered? That is, are men able to raise and spend more money than women contestants? Results have implications for intra-party dynamics as well as for the kinds of individuals who win nominations and therefore contest general elections.

The Impact of Electoral District Boundaries and Political Party Finance on Politics in New Brunswick: Anna Johnson (University of Toronto), Christopher Cochrane (University of Toronto)
Abstract: This paper applies new computational tools and sources of data to study the impact of electoral district boundaries and political financing on the politics of New Brunswick. New Brunswick is worth considering for a few reasons. First, along with Saskatchewan, the province is the epicenter of legal principles underpinning the Canadian electoral system (Raïche v Canada (Attorney General)). These principles will need to be reformed, for reasons we demonstrate using a computational tool developed for this purpose. Second, New Brunswick allows out-of-province donations, which is thought to encourage appeals likely to resonate with mobilized interests based outside the jurisdiction. Using new data, we consider the magnitude and impact of these donations. The overarching aim of the paper is to study NB as a microcosm of the sources of non-democracy and polarization affecting Canadian politics due to new technologies interacting with traditional institutions.

New Fundraisers at Old Country Clubs: Where Parliament's Top Earners Turn Donations into Votes: Eli Rose (University of Toronto), Chris Cochrane (University of Toronto), Anna Johnson (University of Toronto)
Abstract: In the world of Canadian politics, money talks, but this study asks where, how loudly, and for whom? Using a high quality political donations and party financing dataset, which is geo-located to a very granular resolution and mapped to Google Earth, this paper provides a fractionalized raster (grid) representation and descriptive analysis of political donations across Canada. Analysis of the raster and dataset describes where money in politics is most and least concentrated and by what parties. The latter half of the study adds two additional layers of data to the raster: census and voting data, and coded demographics for every federal candidate. The study's second analysis will shed light on Canadian politics' highest and lowest earners and when, or if, donations translate into votes. Cross-referencing donation data to demographic, geographic, and electoral data reveals the determinants to successful fundraising in Canada, but also the value in electoral support each party and candidate receives in relation to their fundraising outcomes. Ultimately, by uncovering the intricate web of fundraising patterns across demographics, regions, and electoral outcomes, this paper reveals not only where Canada’s political dollars flow but also how they ripple through the electoral landscape.