Comparative Politics

B09(b) - Trust, Representation, and Electoral Dynamics in Contemporary Democracies

Date: Jun 4 | Time: 08:30am to 10:00am | Location:

Chair/Président/Présidente : Graeme Young (University of Glasgow)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Cristine de Clercy (University of Western Ontario)

More Youth Representation, Higher Trust? The Impact of Youth Representation on Young People’s Trust in Parliament: Mira Buckle (University of Ottawa), Daniel Stockemer (University of Ottawa), Emily Gammon (University of Ottawa), Ines Nzohabonayo (University of Ottawa), Kamila Kolodziejczyk (University of Ottawa)
Abstract: There is a growing body of research, which looks both at youth’s representation as the independent variable and dependent variable. In this research, we contribute to the literature that looks at the effect youth representation has on other indicators such as youth political interest and turnout. In more detail, we evaluate whether youth’s descriptive representation in parliament influence’s this age group’s trust in the institutions of democracy. We hypothesize that higher levels of youth descriptive representation trigger young people’s higher levels of trust in democratic institutions. We test this hypothesis, using a worldwide dataset comprising the percentage of young people aged 35 and 40 or younger as the independent variable, and these groups’ levels of trust in the population as the dependent variable. Our study comprising more than 200 datapoints in 85 countries finds support for our hypothesis. Controlling for institutional factors such as the type of government system, as well as socio-political factors such as the GDP per capita, we find that higher levels of youth representation significantly (both statistically and substantively) boosts youth’s trust in democratic institutions. Keywords: youth, youth representation, substantive representation, descriptive representation, trust, democracy, parliament

Corruption Perceptions and Diffuse Support in Advanced Democracies: Feodor Snagovsky (University of Alberta), Sewordor Toklo (University of Alberta), Roberto Mendoza (University of Alberta)
Abstract: How do perceptions of political corruption influence support for democratic institutions? While many advanced democracies have a relatively low incidence of actual political corruption, a significant portion of the population believes corruption to be widespread in political institutions. This perception-reality gap has potentially negative implications for the diffuse support which underlies democratic systems. This paper examines the determinants and consequences of corruption beliefs through two studies. First, we use data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and Canadian Election Study (CES) to examine the determinants of political corruption perceptions. Second, we conduct a pre-registered survey experiment which examines how priming perceptions of political corruption affects respondents’ levels of political trust, support for democracy, and perceptions of external efficacy. The results further our understanding of the implications of political corruption perceptions in democratic systems.

They Deport Immigrants, Don't They? Do Populist Voters trust the Electoral Pledges of their Preferred Party?: Marc Hooghe (Université de Louvain)
Abstract: Populist radical-right political parties tend to stress in their party programs a strong stance against flows of immigration. It can be observed, however, that quite some of these proposals run counter to international humanitarian law obligations, or are difficult to implement anyhow. Currently, however, we do not know how voters for these parties react to these problems. When they support this party, do they actually believe these proposals will be implemented, or should this be seen mostly as a protest vote? In the 2024 Belgian Election Survey, we therefore introduced this question. Belgium offers a good case, as the radical right party obtained 23 per cent of the vote, and therefore the survey includes a sufficiently high number of voters for these parties. The survey allows us to assess to what extent voters for these parties actually believe that some of the more radical proposals will be implemented. We close with some observations on what implies for the relation between populist radical-right voting and the actual rule of law in liberal democracies.

Rethinking Leadership in an Era of Broken Trust: Cristine de Clercy (Trent University), Peter Ferguson (Government of Canada)
Abstract: The necessity of trust as a foundation of leadership is taken as a maxim in the literature. This belief dates back to Confucius, who claimed: “If a man is respectful, he will not be treated with insolence. If he is tolerant, he will win the multitude. If he is trustworthy in word, his fellow men will entrust him with responsibility.” The linkage between trust and leadership pervades the literature today. This paper critically assesses the link between trust and leadership with a view toward suggesting the necessity of problematizing trust and how it may - or may not - influence leadership. Trust in government and leaders has been in decline for some time. The recent Pew Research Center report, “Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024,” points out that when the National Election Study began asking about trust in 1958, about three quarters of Americans trusted the federal government to do the right thing almost always or most of the time. Today, that number stands at 22%. This is not just an American phenomenon: the OECD’s Trust Survey indicates that on average within OECD countries, 39% of the population trust their national government. About 49% of Canadians trust their government, which is better than the OECD average but much worse than historic levels. Trust in political leaders is even lower in many other democratic countries. In an environment where at least 60% of the people don’t trust their government, it may be more productive to reconceptualize the environment as one of broken trust. The paper explores the implications of this reframing the trust literature in three areas: leadership, democratic institutions, and elections. Some recent elections are examined to illuminate some of the gaps and inconsistencies in the literature, notably the 2016 and 2024 elections of Donald Trump to the American presidency. The study concludes with a short survey of some new approaches and arguments, such as those articulated by Martin Wolf in his 2023 book on democracy and capitalism, that aim to recast our understanding of this central concept.