International Relations

C04(d) - Israel-Gaza-Hizballah: Global Implications

Date: Jun 3 | Time: 01:45pm to 03:15pm | Location:

Chair/Président/Présidente : Graeme Young (University of Glasgow)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Graeme Young (University of Glasgow)

The Role of Identity, Belonging and Exclusion in Canada’s Reaction to the Hizballah-Israel War and the Resulting Consequences Ruby Dagher, University of Ottawa Reassessing Iran's Deterrence Strategy: Challenges amid the Israel-Gaza War and Trump’s Re-Election in November 2024 Ali Dizboni, Royal Military College of Canada Gaza: A.I. and the End of Human Security Timea Spitka, Carleton University

Reassessing Iran's Deterrence Strategy: Challenges amid the Israel-Gaza War and Trump’s Re-Election in November 2024: Ali G. Dizboni (Royal Military College of Canada and Queen's University)
Abstract: The ongoing Israel-Gaza war and the re-election of Donald Trump in November 2024 present new challenges for Iran’s deterrence calculus, prompting Tehran to reassess its strategy within an evolving regional and global landscape. As Israel escalates military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran faces significant setbacks, which diminish its capacity to leverage these groups as deterrent assets. Concurrently, Trump’s re-election signals a likely return to hardline U.S. policies, including renewed sanctions, potential military pressure, and strengthened regional alliances aimed at countering Iran. These combined pressures compel Iran to adapt its deterrence framework amid growing isolation and decreased influence. This study addresses key questions central to Iran’s strategic adaptation: (1) How will Iran compensate for the diminished capabilities of the Axis of Resistance in its deterrence strategy? (2) What roles might Iran’s missile and nuclear programs play in recalibrating its approach? (3) Could Iran pivot to unconventional methods, such as cyber operations, to assert influence? To explore these questions, this paper employs a mixed-methods approach, combining geopolitical analysis with case studies of Iran’s historical responses to shifts in U.S. policy and regional conflicts. Primary qualitative data from expert interviews, along with quantitative assessments of Iran’s military expenditures and capabilities, provide insights into Tehran’s potential strategic pivots. Through this analysis, the study offers a comprehensive view of Iran’s deterrence recalibration in 2024, highlighting the broader implications for regional stability, U.S.-Iran relations, and international security. This research thus contributes to a deeper understanding of how Iran’s deterrence calculus is evolving under new and complex pressures.

Gaza: A.I. and the End of Human Security: Timea Spitka (Carleton University)
Abstract: Gaza: A.I. and the End of Human Security For the first time, an Israeli AI program ‘Lavander’ was used to generate a target list for 2023/24 assassinations in Gaza. Subsequent to the October 7th attack, the system reportedly marked as many as 37,000 Palestinians as suspected Hamas linked militants to be potentially targeted in their own homes. What do we know about the use of AI in monitoring civilians and targeted assassinations? What don’t we know about the use of AI during peace and conflict by the military? What are the justifications for killing of civilians including children, errors in executions and implications for human security? Examining the use of AI by Israel in Gaza, this research investigates unchartered terrain of human insecurity and international norms on protection.

The Role of Identity, Belonging and Exclusion in Canada’s Reaction to the Hizballah-Israel War and the Resulting Consequences: Ruby Dagher (University of Ottawa)
Abstract: Politics of belonging at the international level have long played a role in alliances, immigration, and official and non-official systems of coloniality and control. Canada’s auto-proclaimed identity is linked to a belief in an international rules-based order, peacebuilding, and liberal governance have shaped its relationship with other countries and peoples. Our research demonstrates the importance of the sense of identity and belonging on Canada’s relationship with Lebanon. Canada’s recent policies and the recent statement made by political leaders, government ministers, high level federal servants, and other politicians demonstrate a Canadian sense of belonging and a shared identity with Israel. However, the research demonstrates that this inclusionary-exclusionary politics are used selectively. In this sense, Canada has made decisions to interact with Lebanon through aid, trade, migration, and humanitarian assistance in a manner that is not dictated by its sense of belonging with Israel. However, this sense of belonging and the shared values have played an important filtering role in order to ensure that the safety and security of Israel and its perception are not negatively impacted, and that the sense of belonging between Canada and Israel is not questioned. This is clearly demonstrated in the recent statements of Canadian officials who avoid directly criticizing Israel’s actions while directly criticizing Hizballah and the Lebanese Government. Finally, the research demonstrates that Canada’s approach has contributed to making the international governance system more exclusionary, weakened Canada’s power in the region, and allowed other actors to take advantage of this exclusion.