International Relations

C21(b) - Russia and the World

Date: Jun 14 | Time: 03:30pm to 05:00pm | Location: McGill College 2001 735

Chair/Président/Présidente : Ali Dizboni (Royal Military College of Canada)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Ali Dizboni (Royal Military College of Canada)

Civilizational Status-seeking: Explaining Risk-Acceptant Turkish and Russian Foreign Policies: Muhammed Yusuf Yilmaz (McGill University)
Abstract: Recently, Turkish and Russian foreign policies have been increasingly referred to as “assertive” and the major decisions like Russia’s war against Ukraine or Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 air defense systems were delineated as major junctures in their directions (Götz, 2016; Kutlay & Öniş, 2021). While these policies are undoubtedly risk-acceptant, I argue that the shift in these post-imperial states’ foreign policies has started much earlier. To explain the causes of these states’ unprecedented willingness to take risks, I introduce civilizational status-seeking— a theoretical approach that brings focus to these states’ collective memories of their imperial pasts and their concerns for higher status in international society. Under this approach, I put forth three propositions that locate the roots of these overambitious behaviors in the post-imperial states’ concern for a higher position in international society—a position that was once held by their predecessor. First, I argue that, after going through a period of relative international rise and uninterrupted governments, the post-imperial states start questioning the dominant national narratives about their imperial pasts—the ones that were adopted after the dissolution of their empires. Second, as the challenges to the post-imperial national identity narratives grow, these rising post-imperial states begin identifying as imperial successors rather than as their current state. These states’ changing self-images alter the national collective perceptions about their states’ deserved international position. Finally, as the newfound self-ascribed status is not recognized internationally, the post-imperial state leaders experience a constant perception of loss. Drawing on prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), I argue that the perception of loss prompts the post-imperial state leaders to pursue risky foreign policies as the actors are risk-acceptant with respect to losses. To test the hypotheses in this interdisciplinary approach, I apply mixed-method research. By conducting qualitative and quantitative textual analysis of the official and unofficial articulations of the imperial past (Jo, 2022), I analyze the evolution of Turkish and Russian collective memories. By combining field research in Turkey and Eastern Europe with framing analysis (McGlynn, 2022), I examine the extent to which these collective memories impact these states’ risk-taking foreign policies. With this theoretically and methodologically eclectic approach, I demonstrate the impact of aspirational status concerns and loss aversion in the post-imperial states’ overambitious foreign policy agendas.

Liberal IR Theory and the War in Ukraine: Michael Lipson (Concordia University)
Abstract: This paper develops a liberal IR theory explanation for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, contrasting it with alternative realist, bargaining theory, and ontological security explanations. Liberal IR theory is often regarded as a theory of peace and cooperation, leaving to other approaches the analysis of international conflict and war. Yet, analytical liberalism (Moravcsik 1997) offers a distinctive theory of war that has not to date been subjected to systematic empirical evaluation. According to Moravcsik’s liberal theory, war results from strong and conflicting state preferences, reflecting the interests and influence of domestic social groups mediated by domestic institutions. According to ideational, commercial, and republican variants of liberalism, war is caused, respectively, by conflicts over mismatch between national identity and borders or perceived threat to domestic order from foreign political ideologies, by domestic economic interests standing to benefit from war, and by domestic institutions empowering risk-acceptant leaders and potential beneficiaries of war over those who bear its costs. The paper proposes an “ideational-republican” liberal explanation for Russia’s invasion, as a product of Russian personalist dictatorship coupled to Putin’s conception of Russian national identity and borders as rightfully subsuming Ukraine.

Gendering Hybrid Warfare: Russia's Gendered Disinformation Campaign: Owen Wong (Queen's University), Stéfanie von Hlatky (Queen's University), Claire Mountford (Queen's University)
Abstract: States are increasingly using disinformation and propaganda to undermine their foreign adversaries. While scholars have analyzed how and why states use propaganda, it is unclear how gender norms are used in hybrid warfare propaganda campaigns. How do states use gender norms in their propaganda and disinformation campaigns to polarize the populations of foreign adversaries? Although anecdotes suggest that state-sponsored disinformation campaigns appeal to gender norms/stereotypes to divide and polarize societies, little empirical research has been done to support this claim. In this article, we analyze Russian state-sponsored news media to determine how the tension between progressive and regressive gender norms has been used to generate support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine among foreign publics. We apply a qualitative content analysis to an original database constructed with funding from the Department of National Defence. Our research has implications for academics studying hybrid warfare, Canadian defence policy, and the Women, Peace, and Security agenda. Additionally, the project contributes best practices for Canada to respond to grey-zone disinformation and hybrid warfare. By understanding the gendered nature of hybrid warfare, Canada can respond effectively and equitably to this emerging threat.