International Relations

C14(b) - Sino-US Relations

Date: Jun 13 | Time: 03:30pm to 05:00pm | Location: McGill College 2001 735

Chair/Président/Présidente : Shehnoor Khurram (York University / Georgetown University)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Anessa Kimball (Université Laval)

Mining, Market and Minds: How US’s new lithium mining projects shape foreign Policy Attitudes towards China: Diya Jiang (McGill University)
Abstract: As the US-China rivalry intensifies, the United States and its core allies are becoming increasingly concerned with China’s advantageous position in critical mineral supply chains. Indeed, given that minerals such as lithium are critical for the production of batteries, the Biden administration has recently put in place a $2.8 billion subsidy for the domestic production and processing of critical minerals. The proposed article aims to investigate the effects of recently expanding lithium mining activities on foreign policy attitudes toward China among local populations. Specifically, it will use the Thacker Pass Lithium Mine in Nevada as its main case. The study hypothesizes that economic interests brought by the local lithium production reinforce the China threat perception, fostering more antagonistic foreign policy and trade attitudes towards China locally. These economic considerations may further interact with geopolitical concerns on the national level and thereby contribute to unfavorable public attitude orientations. Adopting a quasi-experimental design, the paper will use time-series public opinion data conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. It identifies several shocks following the approval of the Thacker Pass Lithium Mine and will use them to assess the effect of these shocks on local foreign policy attitudes through a Regression Discontinuity Design. The findings aim to contribute to empirical and theoretical understandings of how local economic projects can shape foreign policy attitudes under the current hegemonic competition.

“Power” not “Middle” -middle powers’ strategic options in US-China Rivalry: Yanzhuo Xu (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Abstract: Great powers transition in international system has brought middle powers into a crossroad. The discussion on middle power’s strategic choices between rising power and established power assumed that within a highly asymmetric relationship, middle powers have little autonomy to choose in the great power rivalry. This research investigates three cases, the introduction of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2022, South Korea‘s participation in IPEF in 2022, Turkey‘s role in Russia-Ukraine War, and argues as US and China continue their competition for influence among other countries，middle powers have increasing autonomy in navigating between great powers. Reliable alliances are not take guaranteed to take sides. The heterogeneity (side with US, side with China, balanced) exhibited by different middle powers in different cases reflexes that middle power affords more leeway in their alignment decisions, rather than strategic dilemma. Self-awareness（threat awareness and self-identity）and subtle calculation of national agendas play more important than geopolitical pressures (regional situation and roles and relationship in alliance) in deciding their strategic choices. Additionally, growing tensions between great powers do not always harm middle powers. Middle powers could be able to gain benefits, rather than damages in take side

Relationality and Normative Power: China’s New International Order: Theodor Tudoroiu (The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus)
Abstract: Using an International Relations Constructivist approach centered on the concepts of normative power and international socialization, this paper argues that the leadership in Beijing has been using a set of Chinese-led multilateral institutions to construct a new international order in the Global South. A key role is played by the Belt and Road Initiative and its prestige infrastructure projects. These projects are used by China as material incentives to socialize the Global South political elites through micro-processes of role playing/mimicking, which add to well-conceived micro-processes of persuasion. The ensuing acceptance of Chinese norms by targeted elites has resulted in the alignment of their states’ policies with Beijing’s interests and their joining of China’s new international order. This is a thick order supported by two Chinese-led globalizations ‘from above’ and ‘from below,’ to which a Chinese security community has recently been added. Despite the exploitative nature of the center-periphery relationships established within this order, China’s reliance on relationality-based normative power leads to a genuinely cooperative and benevolent attitude that has the potential to create a peaceful and rather humane new international order. However, the multidimensional counteroffensive of the American hegemon is endangering the Chinese socialization process and threatening China militarily. President Xi responded mainly by launching the Global Development and Global Security Initiatives. The latter upgrades China’s hard power actorness by establishing a security community. Unfortunately, this is likely to escalate Sino-American tensions and possibly put an end to the cooperative and benevolent nature of the Chinese international order.

Taiwan: China and the United States political playground: Clare McKendry (University of Waterloo), Mohamed Elgayar (University of Waterloo)
Abstract: “He who rides on the back of a tiger is afraid to dismount, for doing so invites its wrath”. This evocative Chinese idiom China observers, in the West, used to understand the challenges of managing the rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a global superpower. China has adopted an increasingly assertive approach to a wide range of issues within the last decade; its self-declared “core interests” have become a principle of its foreign policy. China’s core interest is Taiwan, what it deems a renegade province that must be brought under Beijing’s control. Recent tensions have heightened between China and the United States over the “One China” issue as the former has alleged interference in its internal affairs constituting a violation of its sovereignty. This paper challenges the prevailing view of an imminent U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan, often framed through outdated realist and neorealist paradigms. It challenges the mainstream International Relations theories that cannot account for important cognitive and affective elements in the China-Taiwan issue such as national and civilizational pride, international respect, China’s “century of humiliation”, and Confucian values. Exploring these ideational factors and unconventional threats to security overshadowed by mainstream IR theories can help us develop a nuanced understanding of the China-Taiwan issue by incorporating ideational elements into our perspectives. This paper will present what a potential conflict between the United States and China will look like; a conflict of non-confrontation that stems across various domains of politics, technology, and ideological warfare across various proxy conflicts.

Impacts de la Démocratie et du Socialisme dans la Politique Mondiale Durant les Premières Décennies du XXIe Siècle : une Emphase sur la Chine et les États-Unis d´Amérique: Guy Juillet (Universidad de Belgrano)
Abstract: Durant les premières décennies du XXIe siècle, les deux premières puissances mondiales, principalement en matière d´économie sont les États-Unis d´Amérique et la Chine. Ils ont tous deux une économie qui se base sur le système capitaliste, mais du point de vue politique, la Chine est enracinée par un régime politique socialiste orchestré par le Parti Communiste Chinois qui est le parti unique du pays et celui-ci embrasse les idéologies de Marx et d´Engels. Cependant, du côté des États-Unis d´Amérique, les idéologies politiques se fondent sur la démocratie, là où les leaders politiques doivent mener des luttes pour prendre le pouvoir à travers les élections. Et, d´une manière ou d´une autre ce pays prône les valeurs de base de la démocratie, à savoir : la liberté d´expression, la transparence et les droits humains, tant sur le plan interne qu´externe. Donc, dans le cadre de ce travail de recherche, nous utiliserons la méthode qualitative en nous appuyant grandement sur la méthode comparative afin de pouvoir identifier et comprendre les impacts du socialisme et de la démocratie dans la politique mondiale. Sans nul doute, le socialisme et la démocratie sont deux grands courants de pensées politiques qui influencent le monde, surtout ils sont pratiqués par deux puissances très fortes sur les plans géopolitique, militaire, économique et autres. En ce sens, l´analyse de ce sujet apportera une nouvelle contribution dans le champ des sciences sociales, principalement la science politique, car il abordera le socialisme et la démocratie tant sur le plan politique que culturel.