Political Behaviour/Sociology

F14 - Panel 3 of the Biennial Workshop on Elections, Parties, and Public Opinion in Québec Politics (2nd edition) - Elections, public opinion and parties in Quebec politics

Date: Jun 13 | Time: 03:30pm to 05:00pm | Location: UQAM, Pavillon Hubert-Aquin, 400 Ste-Catherine E., classroom/local A-5020

Chair/Président/Présidente : Jean-François Daoust (Université de Sherbrooke & Université of Edinburgh)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : André Blais (Université de Montréal)

Biennial Workshop on Elections, Parties, and Public Opinion in Québec Politics (2nd edition) In the first edition of this biannual workshop (before the 2022 Quebec election), Québec politics seemed to be at a crossroad and a possible partisan realignment. In some ways, the 2022 Quebec election confirmed the electoral realignment and provided some answers to students of territorial politics, political behaviour and public opinion. However, it also generated more questions. The Parti liberal du Québec keeps receiving its worst approval rates even when scholars believe that they have reached a floor. Why is that the case? Is the party’s presence at the east of Montreal’s Island bound to disappear? Schisms within the independence movement and lack of strategic coordination seem to hurt “sovereigntist-left parties.” Is the clash between elected representatives of Québec Solidaire and the Parti Québécois really that important? If so, can we quantify it and get a better sense of which issues are subject to this clash? The Coalition Avenir Québec starts showing some signs of “usure du pouvoir” but remains the clear favourite option. The party has clearly “stolen” the issue ownership of the economy which historically belonged to the PLQ. Can it maintain this ownership despite the economic hardship? If not, which party would benefit from the economic situation and which economic policies are best aligned with citizens’ public opinion? More generally speaking, what account for the changes observed in the past decade, which has seen three different parties being in government? How ‘old parties’ (may) adapt to the challenges? Are new social and political issues replacing established ideological dimensions? If so, where do citizens stand and which parties score highest on which cleavages? How comparative research considering other substate nations (e.g., Scotland and Catalonia) or Canadian provinces help us make sense of those transformations? The workshop welcomes paper proposals that aim to improve our understanding of Québec politics by addressing issues related to elections, parties, and public opinion. In particular, the following topics would nicely fit within the scope of the workshop: • Analyses of electoral behaviour (voter turnout, vote choice) and other forms of political participation (online activism, demonstrations, etc.) in Québec politics. • The state of public opinion on national/regional identities, independence, federalism, and similar questions. • Party systems and partisan realignment in Québec. • Legislative behaviour in the Quebec National Assembly. • Party strategies. • Comparison of Québec with other substate nations or Canadian provinces on the preceding topics. As for all congress activities, the workshop is bilingual (i.e. it will take place in both official languages). We strongly encourage participants to submit proposals in French. All discussants will be bilingual and will be able to read and provide comments for both English and French submissions. Please note that discussions and Q&As will take place both in French and in English during the workshop.

Les préférences des Québécois envers la redistribution : l’exception canadienne: Axel Déry (University of Western Ontario), Olivier Jacques (Université de Montréal)
Abstract: Est-ce que le modèle québécois de politiques sociales reflète une opinion publique plus favorable aux services publics et à la redistribution de la richesse? Pour répondre à cette question, nous utilisons trois séries de sondages portant sur deux questions centrales dans l’étude comparée des préférences des citoyens à l’État-providence : l’appui à la redistribution du revenu (mesuré de 1986 à 2021) et les préférences quant à la taille des services publics (mesurées de 2019 à 2023). Dans ces trois sondages, nous observons un appui significativement plus élevé envers la redistribution et les services publics chez les répondants québécois que parmi les répondants des autres provinces, bien que les répondants des provinces de l’Atlantique affichent aussi un appui élevé, mais pas statistiquement significatif. Nous observons également une moins grande polarisation entre les riches et les pauvres et entre les électeurs de gauche et de droite au Québec sur ces questions, alors que les électeurs conservateurs sont significativement moins en faveur d’un État plus grand et les citoyens plus aisés sont significativement moins en faveur de la redistribution hors du Québec.

Benefits and Ressentiment: Support for Quebec Independence, 10 Years Later: Alexandre Rivard (Simon Fraser University), Benjamin Ferland (Université d'Ottawa), Marc André Bodet (Université Laval)
Abstract: The emergence and success of the Coalition Avenir Québec presents an interesting moment in Québec’s electoral politics. It appears that the salience of the Québec sovereignty movement has been decreasing in the contemporary era, at least in comparison to its watershed moments in the early 1990s (Daoust and Gareau-Paquette, 2023; LeDuc, 1977; Meadwell and Martin, 1996; Mendelsohn, 2002, 2003; Nadeau et al., 1999). Yet support for the independence project persists (Bélanger et al., 2022; Blanchet and Medeiros, 2019; Dufresne et al., 2019). The paper addresses this conundrum in mobilizing two theoretical traditions that have been central for explaining support for Quebec independence – i.e., the rational choice and socio-psychological models (Mendelsohn 2003). The former stresses the cost and benefits associated with sovereignty while the latter highlights the role of resentment and grievances toward the federal system for explaining voters’ behaviors. Based on two surveys fielded in 2013 and 2023, we examine whether those approaches are still fundamental for understanding support for independence and how their influence might have shifted in the last decade. Our recent survey also allowed us to consider new factors such as populism and immigration that might have become more significant lately. Finally, we also designed a survey experiment to measure the contemporary constitutional preferences of the modern Québec voter and disentangle preference for independence, changes to Canada’s constitutional order, and the status quo.

Testing Multiple Measures of Identity in Substate Nations: A Quebec-Based Experiment: Elissa Berwick (McGill University)
Abstract: Quantitative studies of national identity in multinational states are often built on shaky ground. Historically popular subjective measurements of multinational identity such as the Linz-Moreno scale are increasingly contested, while newer alternatives are either poorly understood or vulnerable to the same limitations. There is also substantial evidence that the survey questions typically used to measure subjective identity are not always capturing what researchers truly intend to measure, and that their meaning varies across national and even sub-national settings. In some contexts, researchers can leverage objective markers of belonging such as language, yet variation in how individuals choose to identify and what identity means to them complicate inferences that rely on such measures. In order to clearly understand what different questions regarding national identity are actually capturing, this paper compares different proposed measures in an experimental framework. Quebec-based study participants are assigned to different close-ended, quantitative measures of national identity, followed up by open-ended questions asking them to explain their national identity in their own words. The validity of the various measurement strategies is then assessed by observing differences in the degree of association between the closed-end responses and the topics raised in the open-ended explanations, as well as through correlations with other attitudes scholars anticipate ought to be associated with national identity.

Stéréotypes et perceptions: Mesurer la validité des jugements politiques basés sur le style de vie: Catherine Ouellet (Université de Montréal)
Abstract: Les individus tirent souvent des conclusions sur autrui à partir d'informations statiques fondées l’apparence, tels que les traits du visage ou encore l'attrait physique. La recherche suggère par ailleurs que ces jugements surviennent rapidement et spontanément. Les humains sont-ils également capables de détecter les préférences politiques sur la base de l'apparence? L'article suivant examine, dans le contexte québécois, dans quelle mesure des caractéristiques liées au style de vie influencent les jugements de tout un chacun sur l'affiliation politique d’autrui et, surtout, la validité de ces jugements (ou préjugés). Une analyse conjointe permet de mesurer le poids de caractéristiques liées au style de vie sur la formation des jugements politiques. Ces résultats sont ensuite contrastés à un vaste ensemble de données (n = 64 745), permettant de mesurer la validité de ces jugements, et de distinguer les caractéristiques qui permettent une inférence valide de celles qui induisent les gens en erreur. Les résultats suggèrent que certaines caractéristiques liées au style de vie, comme le type de voiture ou les activités de loisirs, sont clairement associées à différents partis politiques, du moins dans l'esprit des gens. Les résultats suggèrent également que, malgré les effets potentiellement néfastes des jugements basés sur l'apparence, les individus sont généralement assez doués pour inférer les préférences politiques d’autrui à partir du style de vie. Cette étude contribue à un agenda de recherche bourgeonnant sur la relation entre le style de vie et les préférences politiques et, plus généralement, éclaire sur la valeur diagnostique des inférences politiques fondées sur l’apparence. Des implications théoriques et pratiques sont également discutées.