Comparative Politics

B19(a) - Politics and Social Media

Date: Jun 14 | Time: 01:45pm to 03:15pm | Location: 680 Sherbrooke St. West 355

Chair/Président/Présidente : Kenya Thompson (York University)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Simon Vodrey (Carleton University)

Policymaking to the Tempo? Timing, Policy Implementation & Protest Cycle during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Amir Abdul Reda (Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique)
Abstract: In times of crisis, why do some containment policies face more civil unrest than others? What does this tell us about the ways in which policymakers should introduce restrictive yet common good policies during times of crisis? In this paper, we challenge the conventional wisdom about the reasons why people protest against Covid-19 policies. We argue that civil unrest against pandemic related policies are mainly a factor of the material pain caused by the containment policies themselves, more so than the political factors outlined by others in the literature. We develop a theory of civil unrest to stringency policies during the pandemic by reengaging with a well trodden, decades old literature on material pain and protests. To test our theory, we use time series cross section data for 22 European countries spanning 2020 to 2022 (inclusive) and disaggregated at the region level. Based on this new data, we show that protests rise in relation to an intricate relationship between the severity of policies implemented to fight Covid-19, and a range of material pain (or support) variables. This is substantial for policymakers, as we show that economic support policies can effectively mitigate the propensity for protests at very specific times in the pandemic, being otherwise potentially wasted money. Our results are significant because they highlight the importance of timely and adequate governmental intervention during crises to optimize social cohesion against a common threat, and optimal use of public funds.

Appropriately Angry? Emotion Norms in Online Political Communication: Jessica Burch (Simon Fraser University)
Abstract: Previous political communication work suggests that anger expression drives social media engagement, with angry posts more likely to be rewarded with 'likes' or 'shares'. This common finding sits oddly with widespread social norms, which tend to discourage the expression of anger in everyday conversation. I examine whether previous findings on anger expression generalize to Reddit. In addition to being a more discussion-based platform, Reddit is also home to communities (known as subreddits) with different norms. I theorize that social media posts are rewarded or penalized on the basis of context-specific norms - and that anger expression will be deemed more appropriate in political, than (primarily) non-political, subreddits. I also explore potential differences between Canadian and American subreddits. I use corpus-informed, dictionary-based text analysis to capture the presence and intensity of anger expression in more than 2,000 posts. I then examine the extent to which anger expression is rewarded, and whether this varies by topic. Implications for emotion in politics and political engagement research are discussed.

Rooting for whom? Mainstream parties group appeal strategies on social media in a fragmented party system: Lucas Kins (Université libre de Bruxelles)
Abstract: The decline of mainstream, historical political parties in Europe has been challenged in recent years, with many instances of resilience or “comeback” of such actors across the continent. Nevertheless, the proliferation and persistence of both right-wing and left-wing populists also points to a scenario of cohabitation (or even collaboration) in several countries (De Vries & Hobolt, 2020; Krause et al., 2023). In this context, it is now more than ever crucial for mainstream parties, which have suffered from their ideological convergence (or de-ideologization) and partisan dealignment, to differentiate from one another (Garzia et al., 2022; Grant & Tilley, 2023). Drawing on social identity theory, representation and political communication literatures, we unravel the strategies that mainstream parties adopt in their day-to-day online communication to craft their image relative to groups in society (1), partisan identities (2), individual (3) and institutional actors (4). We rely on a quantitative content analysis of one year of parties and party leaders communication in Belgium on social media (X), a fragmented multi-party parliamentary democracy, and analyze parties’ group appeals in order to assess whether parties achieve homogenous partisan identities, or to the contrary actively contribute to their further dissolution. We proceed to examine to what extent different parties feed into the horizontal and/or vertical polarization strategies of their populist challengers, or opt for an alternate communication style with regards to group appeals.

X as a Mobilization Tool: The 2022 Freedom Convoy: Jan Eckardt (University of Western Ontario), Deena Abdul--Fottouh (Dalhousie University), Farah Rana (University of Western Ontario)
Abstract: We seek to leverage X (Twitter) data collected to evaluate the extent to which X was used as a mobilization tool for the 2022 Freedom Convoy in Ottawa, Canada. Several tweets from a variety of hashtags were collected. We evaluate the content of the tweets through an unconventional approach, using the Large Language Model (LLM) GPT4. Our methodological contribution is extended by comparing results from a more parametric approach to a more unsupervised approach to LLM-based data analysis and comparing the validity of results. Methodologically, we aim to make a contribution by using a novel and streamlined approach to text analysis by using GPT4 and generating new insights as to how this method is best used. The results of this analysis should in turn add to our theoretical understanding of how X can be used as a mobilization tool for social movements and protests. In sum, our project should both have a methodological and theoretical contribution.

Patterns and Predictors of Geopolitical Sentiments about the 2023 Israel-Gaza War: A Cross-Country Analysis of X Trends Data: Tay Jeong (Unaffiliated)
Abstract: The ongoing war between Israel and Gaza (Hamas) has been at the center of political communication in a large portion of the world, often invoking strong emotions even in populations previously uninterested in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The current conflict is vitally consequential for the “reputational security” of both belligerents as well as their international backers. This study aims to analyze the patterns and determinants of global public sentiment about the conflict through a cross-country analysis of X (Twitter) trends for the first month of the war. The data, which I have already procured, is a demi-hourly record of the top 10 X trends in 62 countries. For most keywords, it is relatively clear whether it is about the War and which side it supports. The paper therefore takes interest in three outcome variables: Overall interest in the War, support for Gaza, and support for Israel. Three types of analyses will be conducted. The first is a descriptive examination and visualization of each of the outcome variables by country and time, with specific attention to how those patterns overlap with major events that happened during the first month of the war. The second analysis examines the global spread of popular trends, with particular attention to geographic patterns in their emergence, spread, and duration. The third analysis is a cross-sectional exploratory analysis of macrohistorical predictors of each of the three outcome variables, paying attention to factors including geographical distance, cultural and religious characteristics, democracy, wealth, history of colonialism, and geopolitical bloc.