Politique canadienne

A16(c) - Race, Representation and Electoral Politics

Date: Jun 5 | Heure: 08:30am to 10:00am | Salle:

Chair/Président/Présidente : Simon Kiss (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Simon Kiss (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Indigenous Representation in the Manitoba and Saskatchewan Legislatures: Daniel Westlake (University of Saskatchewan), Jennifer Amarualik-Yaremko (University of Saskatchewan)
Abstract: Similar proportions of the populations of Manitoba and Saskatchewan identify as Indigenous (18% in Manitoba and 17% in Saskatchewan), yet Indigenous people make up a much larger share of the Manitoba legislature. As of 2024, 11 out of 57 (19%) members of the Manitoba legislature are from an Indigenous background, including Premier Wab Kinew. By contrast only 3 of 61 (5%) of the members of the Saskatchewan legislature come from an Indigenous background. What accounts for this difference? This paper examines the electoral fortunes of Indigenous candidates in each province’s three most recent provincial elections. Drawing on a similar literature examining gender and representation, the paper first asks whether Indigenous candidates do worse than non-Indigenous when running in ridings where their parties are similarly competitive? It then examines the degree to which parties nominate Indigenous candidates and if they nominate Indigenous candidates in ridings where they can win. By conducting quantitative analysis comparing the vote shares of Indigenous and non-Indigenous candidates as well as the likelihood of an Indigenous candidate being nominated in a riding their party can win, this paper will shed light on whether parties or voters play the larger role in the relative under-representation of Indigenous people in the Saskatchewan legislature. By comparing two Western provinces with similarly sized Indigenous populations, this paper can inform broader debates about Indigenous representation in federal and provincial legislatures in Canada.

Candidate by default? Acclamations in major party nomination contests 2004-2019: Michael Wigginton (Carleton University)
Abstract: Candidates for Canadian federal parties are chosen though decentralised nomination contests at the riding level, with local members voting to select from the pool of interested members who have met their party’s ‘greenlighting’ requirements. While these contests play a crucial gatekeeping role in determining who is elected to the House of Commons, they are the subject of relatively little study and public attention. How competitive are these contests, and what factors influence these levels of competitiveness? In this paper, I use an original dataset of major party nomination contests for the 2004-2019 general elections to investigate participation rates in these contests and the prevalence of acclaimed nominations. I find that over 71% of major-party federal nominations contests have only a single contestant, and that these acclaimed races are most common in less competitive districts. I further find notable variations between parties, and that racialized people are less likely to be acclaimed as candidates than are women. These findings underscore the importance of political recruitment practices for representation in the Canadian context, as they reveal that most candidates are acclaimed with no meaningful competitive vote.

The Conservative Party of Canada amidst the Changing Center-Right: A New Electoral Cleavage in Canada?: Sam Routley (University of Western Ontario), Zack Taylor (University of Western Ontario)
Abstract: Center-right parties are in the midst of fundamental change, undermining existing conceptual anchoring and prompting calls for renewed scholarly attention. Yet, despite this predominant global trend, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) remains a notable divergent case in so far as it has maintained the policy stances of its preceding administrations. Why have the Canadian Conservatives, in maintaining continuity, diverged from the more common transformations of other center-right parties? Drawing upon one model of party behavior, this proposal pursues this research question by focusing on the role of electoral conditions in shaping political behavior. That is, by conceptualizing the change seen throughout the center-right as a reaction to a novel set of economic and cultural sociostructurally cleavages linked to GAL-TAN, it examines the extent to which Canada’s divergence can be explained through unique demand side conditions. Drawing upon data made available by Canadian Election Studies between 1997 and 2021, this is empirically pursued in three stages. First, by analyzing issue position variables, it will attempt to determine the extent to which a novel cleavage structures the electorate, in addition to way it has developed in structure and salience over time. Second, it will investigate the relationship this development has with relevant factors, including demographic, voting, and partisan variables. Third and finally, by dividing respondents by postal code, it will determine how the cleavage is directly translated into electoral results in so far as it assesses the balance of these divisions across all electoral districts.

What we know depends on how we ask: Race and political behaviour in Canada : Fan Lu (Queen's University), Erin Tolley (Carleton University), Debra Thompson (McGill University)
Abstract: Since 1996, the proportion of Canadians identifying as members of a “visible minority” has doubled from 11% to 22%. By 2036, one-third of the population will identify as non-white (Statistics Canada 2017). Yet, research on political behaviour in Canada tends to ignore racial difference or measure it bluntly, aggregating it into macro-categories like "visible minority" or eliding it with other axes of group-based identity, such as ethnicity or immigrant background. To help us develop a set of best practices when surveying racialized Canadians, this paper asks how their responses to political questions change depending on how questions reference their race. Specifically, we hypothesize how their responses to political representation, racial identity, linked fate, vote choice, and political participation change when questions reference their race, ethnicity, hyphenated Canadian identity, or visible minority status. To test our hypotheses, we design experiments that focus on Caribbean Blacks, African Canadians/Americans, Sikhs, Indians, Chinese, and Filipinos. We present pilot findings based on experiments conducted with a student sample of mostly racialized Canadians.